Intuition V Algorithm

It has been a long, tedious week for Hearts supporters, after the defeat to The Evil Empire last Sunday.
Things were not exactly exploding all over the place like they had the week or so earlier, but they were trundling along in their now usual Tynecastle in Crisis strife and misdemeanor. This was mostly centred around the actual start date of new interim head coach - Riabovas.
It seemed that everyday this week in the press, he had a different start date, from the 1st of December for a 6 month trial to Tomorrow to never. Meanwhile Malofeev was offski to get his UEFA coaching certificates which he didn't need ( not for a while anyroads ).
Malofeev in charge has been a disaster really, regardless of his coaching/managerial capabilities - the fact that he can't speak a word of English has made his position nonsensical and just added to the Hearts headlining the panto season subplot of the last few weeks. Trackside advice, tactical changes and rants need to be translated to McGlynn and this week Stevie Frail before being shouted out across the pitch, woefully too late ( obviously ). A few pundits on the radio i think Billy Dodds in particular have actually come across as being really pretty angry about that?

After last weeks i game i was firmly of the belief that Hearts still had a way to go before we would turn the corner and things would start to get better. So why then was i just as adamantly of the opinion by Friday that Hearts would win one nil up in Inverness. Where was the evidence for that.

I passed this divination onto one of the blokes in the work, his response being 'crap it will be 1 - 1'.
Bloody hell, i think, he is just as adamant as me in his prediction.
So i inquired as to how he got to be so confident.
Turns out he has a system. He is a bit of a gambler, not big time but he knows his way round the bookies and a fixed odds coupon. He has a system based on the product of the number of goals for and against for each game coming up, this runs to the last 5 years. There is a factor added to this based on actuals which makes things more realistic. He can then simply input a game - in this case Inverness Caley Thistle V Hearts into his system and it will pop out the most likely scoreline based on the info and the system.
This came out with 1 - 1 hence his confidence in the scoreline.
So he asked me how i got to be so confident - 'I just feel it in ma water man'

There was a bit more to it than that but not much. Based mostly on a few factors that came through and came to mind during Friday.

Last week Pressley was on the bench, we all know that reading Hearts and predicting a teamsheet is next to impossible - but i thought in the last blog entry that given he was on the bench then maybe his punishment was almost over and he would be back in. So thats a plus that would lift the team.

Likewise i suspected, no basis for this other than it is quite sensible, that Hartley, Aguair and Brellier would again make up most of the midfield. Three games together and now it should start to fall into place again, so maybe we would not be so disjointed.

Vlad was back over and making noises that he was in concilliatory mood, he wanted to calm the stormy seas - meeting with supporters groups etc. Ivanauskas was also back and apparently ready to go back to work - Riabovas now no longer necessary?? Ivanauaskas was actually over for a court appearance for speeding, but i guess decided to kill two birds with one stone and thought he might as well manage Hearts for a week or two whilst he is here. No really this i thought was a good thing at least, for more upheaval it is a return to a known quantity.

So these things brought the idea into my head that against all the odds Hearts would actually turn up in Inverness on Saturday and be confident and upbeat and ready to take on the world and on their road to recovery and 2nd place.

Premature i think, and not because, what i say here is not true it might be, we didn't get beat!
Premature because it was Inverness up at Inverness - a flying Hearts team on the top of their game would and always does struggle up there. So why would i think this would be different, pretty simple really i just put my maroon specs on again.

Did not catch too much of the game, i watched the Scotland v Australia rugby match until we were getting hosed and gave up the ghost on them. Tuned into the coverage from http://www.bbc.co.uk/scotland/sportscotland/sportsound/
The Hearts team changed again looked much more like last years with a back 4 including Neilson, Pressley and Fyassas and Brellier, Aguair and Hartley were in the middle. So was that a good thing?
The game did not quite have 0 - 0 written all over it but it wasn't far a way from it.
Hearts could have won it, Hartley brought out a very good save low to the keepers right, near the end but ICT also had their chances and could have taken all three points. A defeat yesterday would have been a disaster for Hearts we would surely have plunged deeper into the mealstrom so getting away from Inverness with a point was not so bad really, even if it does mean we lose ground on Rangers and Aberdeen.

There is a crucial fixture list coming up over the next few weeks leading up to the visit of the stinky Hibees on Boxing day, we have
ST Mirren Away
Motherwell Home
Aberdeen Home
Dundee Utd Away
Hibs Home

Right now it sounds like nonsense but ( last year it would have tripped off my tongue ) if we can somehow pull out a run of results from these games running up to Xmas our season can be turned round and saved.

It is time now for the players to once again come to the fore, starting in Paisley next week, we need a performance and we need a win.
So

HOOO ON THE JAMBOS

I guess i need to conceed that method and algorithm have won out over intuition this time round.